The pecan industry has seen tumultuous price fluctuations since the onset of the trade war with farmgate prices hitting decade lows, but on the shelf, pecan prices have remained relatively stable.
Demand for pecans has seen strong growth domestically here in the US, while the export markets have been hit and miss with the pandemic closing economies around the globe. Pecan purchases have shifted and rolling closures in various countries have made buyers somewhat cautious of business as usual.
Exports have increased over last year, with most of the growth coming from China. After the trade war began, pecan exports to China plummeted, after a rough year and a half the phase one trade deal allowed for application of reduced tariffs. Now with the trade deal in place, buyers are returning to the table and exports to China are again seeing traction. In fact China is the driver behind increased pecan exports.
The domestic market has been the major driver of consumption, now with pecan stocks trending lower, farmgate prices are making a recovery. Over the last seven months pecan stocks have continued to trend lower than last year and resistance from growers has pushed bidders to offer more as demand continues strong.
Growers with crop available are reporting increased offers as shellers need more stock to keep plants running and keep orders filled. In-shell has been trending well below $2.00 but as growers hold out for higher offers prices have been inching upwards.
In the west growers have seen offers move from 3 dollars a point as high as 3.30 a point, some have moved around 3.30 but growers are still bullish and have only sold minimal quantities at the 3.3 per point price range.
In the east growers have seen oversized (OVS) prices climb, in April prices were trending in the 1.65 per pound, range and slowly growers have seen offers climb to $2.00. With nearly 4 months left until new crop can make it into crackers, and China increasing activity in the market we could see prices climb even higher. If China continues to purchase with regularity, we may see prices stay at these levels even as new crop comes in.