In-Shell Pecan Stock’s Dwindle as Harvest Approaches

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The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the monthly cold storage report yesterday September 24, 2018, and the In-shell and Shelled pecan inventory showed strong consumption of pecans.  

USDA-NASS PECAN COLD STORAGE REPORT

Every month the National Agricultural Statistics Service releases the Cold Storage report which shows the quantity of goods in cold storage at a particular date for a variety of goods produced in the US. Both In-shell pecans and shelled pecans are counted and summarized in the report each month. The accuracy of this report is something of a debate amongst industry professionals due to the nature of the reporting. The data is collected via the “honesty policy” and unfortunately, industry participants in the past have shown this to be a weakness when it conflicts with profits. However, most people in the industry use this as a guide for a representation of the quantity of pecans in cold storage. One important item to point out is that this does not represent the amount of pecans that have already been committed or non-committed. Be that as it may, the cold storage report released this month shows an increase in consumption for pecans. The quantity of shelled pecans in cold storage has risen slightly from the same time last year, and the in-shell pecans in cold storage has dropped significantly from the same time last year. This means that even with the decreased shipments to China, that pecan consumption is still increasing around the globe. Another aspect to consider is that the shelled pecan inventory is likely to be already committed due to the fact that shellers don’t typically shell the pecans until the customer is ready to take possession because pecans store better in the shell. Which could lead the reader to believe that there is also larger consumption of shelled pecans currently which would lead to larger inventories of shelled pecan product waiting to be delivered. Shellers are currently purchasing the last of the South African pecan crop in order to keep their plants running until the US harvest can re-supply inventories. So far, the forecast looks good for pecan the pecan market in 2018 -2019.